Together with
Good morning. Texas has long been the poster child for population growth, but new census data shows that momentum is fading. Domestic migration to the state just hit its lowest point in two decades.
Today’s issue is brought to you by Mason Joseph Company—the most trusted FHA lender in Texas with 105 construction loans closed since 2016.
Market Snapshot
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Migration Shift
Texas Growth Slows as Inbound Migration Hits 20-Year Low
Courtesy: Shelby Tauber for The Texas Tribune
Once the poster child for population booms, Texas is now seeing a surprising pullback in people moving from other states.
Fading momentum: Texas added only 67,000 residents through net domestic migration in the 12 months ending June 2025—its lowest gain since 2005, per new Census data. That’s down from nearly 219,000 just three years ago, marking a sharp reversal for a state once known for rapid growth.
Still big: Texas remains a top destination but has slipped to second in net domestic migration, behind North Carolina. Florida saw an even steeper drop, highlighting a broader Southern slowdown—while the Midwest posted its first net gain in over 20 years.
Waning appeal: Experts cite slowing job growth and rising housing costs—driven in part by high property taxes—as key factors behind the slowdown. Economist Vance Ginn says Texas has “rested on its laurels,” while demographers note the state’s traditional pull is weakening.
Immigration drop: International migration masked domestic declines from 2022 to 2024, but that support faded in 2025. Immigration to Texas fell sharply to 167,500—less than half the prior year—tracking a nationwide drop tied to tighter immigration policies.
Not an exodus: The decline stems mostly from fewer newcomers, not more people leaving. Inflows dropped over 17% from 2022 to 2024, while departures stayed steady. Local signs of softer demand include lower toll road usage and flat city revenues.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Big picture: The Texas boom isn’t over, but it’s clearly cooling. Slower growth could ease pressure on infrastructure and shift opportunities to overlooked regions like the Midwest.
TOGETHER WITH MASON JOSEPH COMPANY
105 FHA Construction Loans Closed Since 2016
Mason Joseph Multifamily Finance has closed 105 FHA-insured construction loans in Texas over the last decade – more than the next three FHA lenders combined.
That's why San Antonio–based Mason Joseph is the most trusted lender for high-leverage, low-interest FHA financing.
Whether your next multifamily development is in Texas, or any of the 49 other States, send us your budget & pro forma and in 24 hours we can tell you how an FHA-insured loan will improve your returns.
*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.
Around Texas
➥ Multifamily rents in Austin declined for the 10th consecutive quarter, but analysts predict a recovery in 2026.
➥ Houston’s Class A multifamily sector posted its weakest demand in five years, with high-end supply outpacing leasing activity.
➥ A proposed arena near Dallas City Hall is stirring backlash from preservationists concerned it could threaten historic buildings and reshape the urban core.
➥ Several of Texas’ largest CRE loans are headed into foreclosure this February, highlighting mounting distress in the lending market.
➥ San Antonio investor Devin Elder pleaded guilty to a $66M wire fraud scheme involving multifamily syndications and misuse of investor funds.
➥ Fifth Third Bank bought out Comerica’s interest in its downtown Dallas tower, but the future of the partially vacant property remains uncertain.
➥ NASA is opening 184 acres near Houston’s Johnson Space Center for commercial development, offering rare access to federally controlled land for leasing.
➥ Transwestern has begun Phase 2 of its 1.4M SF Innerbelt Northwest Logistics Park in Houston, with half of the new space already preleased.
Follow the Money
| OFFICE DALLAS The half-empty, 36-story Harwood Center in downtown Dallas didn’t sell at auction, leaving its future uncertain. |
| MULTIFAMILY FRISCO The Bascom Group sold a multifamily property in Frisco, TX, continuing investor interest in suburban Sun Belt assets. |
| RETAIL COOKE COUNTY Texas grocer H-E-B acquired nearly 600 acres in Cooke County, signaling possible expansion into North Texas. |
| OFFICE FORT WORTH Range Resources is planning to vacate its longtime Fort Worth HQ, another energy firm scaling back physical office needs. |
| OFFICE DALLAS Harwood International sold its fifth building to TPG in Dallas’ Harwood District, part of a broader recapitalization strategy across its trophy office assets. |
| DEVELOPMENT ALLEN Billingsley Company secured a $12M tax rebate for its Sloan Corners project in Allen, advancing a major North Dallas development. |
| INDUSTRIAL HOUSTON Trammell Crow completed the final phase of its 1.7M SF Cypress Logistics Center near Houston, ending one of the region’s largest industrial builds. |
| OFFICE PLANO Yardi signed a major expansion deal in Plano, echoing the broader tech migration trend away from urban cores. |
📈 CHART OF THE WEEK
West Texas multifamily rent growth is losing momentum, with falling oil prices expected to weaken apartment demand and put downward pressure on rents in early 2026.
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